城镇化与生态环境耦合的动态模拟——研究进展与展望     

崔学刚  方创琳  刘海猛  刘晓菲  李咏红 《地理学报(英文版)》2020,30(2):333-352

Urbanization and eco-environment coupling is a research hotspot.Dynamic simulation of urbanization and eco-environment coupling needs to be improved because the processes of coupling are complex and statistical methods are limited.Systems science and cross-scale coupling allow us to define the coupled urbanization and eco-environment system as an open complex giant system with multiple feedback loops.We review the current state of dynamic simulation of urbanization and eco-environment coupling and find that:(1)The use of dynamic simulation is an increasing trend,the relevant theory is being developed,and modeling processes are being improved;(2)Dynamic simulation technology has become diversified,refined,intelligent and integrated;(3)Simulation is mainly performed for three aspects of the coupling,multiple regions and multiple elements,local coupling and telecoupling,and regional synergy.However,we also found some shortcomings:(1)Basic theories are inadequately developed and insufficiently integrated;(2)The methods of unifying systems and sharing data are behind the times;(3)Coupling relations and the dynamic characteristics of the main driving elements are not fully understood or completely identified.Additionally,simulation of telecoupling does not quantify parameters and is not systemically unified,and therefore cannot be used to represent spatial synergy.In the future,we must promote communication between research networks,technology integration and data sharing to identify the processes governing change in coupled relations and in the main driving elements in urban agglomerations.Finally,we must build decision support systems to plan and ensure regional sustainable urbanization.  相似文献   

Post-earthquake economic resilience and recovery efficiency in the border areas of the Tibetan Plateau: A case study of areas affected by the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake in Sichuan,China in 2008     

Zhou  Kan  Liu  Baoyin  Fan  Jie 《地理学报(英文版)》2020,30(8):1363-1381

Journal of Geographical Sciences - The border areas of the Tibetan Plateau and the neighboring mountainous areas have a high incidence of earthquakes with a magnitude greater than Ms 5.0, as well...  相似文献   

Simulating cross-sectional geometry of the main channel in response to changes in water and sediment in Lower Yellow River     

Wang  Yanjun  Wu  Baosheng  Zhong  Deyu 《地理学报(英文版)》2020,30(12):2033-2052

Journal of Geographical Sciences - To understand the non-equilibrium morphological adjustment of a river in response to environmental changes, it is essential to (i) accurately identify how past...  相似文献   

Australian ‘gayborhoods’ and ‘lesborhoods’: a new method for estimating the number and prevalence of adult gay men and lesbian women living in each Australian postcode     

Denton Callander  Julie Mooney-Somers  Phillip Keen  Rebecca Guy  Tim Duck  Benjamin R. Bavinton 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(11):2160-2176

ABSTRACT

Gay men and lesbian women often demonstrate unique settlement patterns, forming what have been referred to as ‘gayborhoods’. This study sought to provide the first postcode-level estimates of population size and prevalence of gay and lesbian people in Australia. Data on same-gender-partnered households from the Australian Census were combined with information from six different surveys conducted from 2011 to 2017. We estimated that in 2016 there were 132,203 gay men (1.5% of adult males; 95% CI: 1.4–1.6) and 79,931 lesbian women (0.9% of adult females; 95% CI: 0.8–1.0) in Australia. While many postcodes were sparsely populated by gay and lesbian people (40.1% had prevalences of <0.1%), 24.6% were moderately populated (prevalences in the 50-95th percentile) and 2.7% were highly populated (95th percentile). By jurisdiction, the Australian Capital Territory had the highest prevalences of gay men (2.1%; 95% CI: 2.0–2.2) and lesbian women (1.5%; 95% CI: 1.4–1.6). Although the majority of highly populated postcodes were found in major cities (83.7%), some were also found in regional and remote area (16.3%). This method can be applied in other countries to enhance populate estimates. The accompanying dataset can be used to guide service delivery, conduct geographically contextualised research and develop policies relevant to gay men and lesbian women in Australia.  相似文献   

气候变化下基于物种与植物耦联机制的小白额雁(Anser erythropus)潜在生境及适宜性研究--以长江流域中下游为例     

向伶  高翔  彭玉辉  梁婕 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2020,11(2):140-149

气候变化和人类活动通过改变物种生境而影响物种多样性。小白额雁是长江流域中下游的一种具有较高生态价值的食草型濒危候鸟,受气候变化和人类活动威胁。本文以小白额雁为代表性物种,定量分析了气候变化对长江流域中下游候鸟潜在生境及适宜性空间分布格局的影响。采用Maxent模型模拟了当前情景和全球环流模型(GCMs)气候场景下小白额雁潜在生境及其适宜性分布。研究结果表明,小白额雁分布特征与其栖息地周边植物分布呈显著相关关系;运用Maxent模型模拟小白额雁六种主要食源植物的分布特征,并将其结果作为环境变量,将显著改善小白额雁潜在生境及其适宜性模型的模拟性能;在两种典型浓度情景(RCP 2.6和RCP8.5)下,2070年小白额雁潜在生境适宜性面积将下降。为应对气候变化对小白额雁的影响,应采取更加合理的管理措施和保护政策,包括调整保护区的大小、形状和用途。  相似文献   

Simulations of the Impact of Lakes on Local and Regional Climate Over the Tibetan Plateau     

Lingjing Zhu  Xin Liu  Lei Tian  Qunhui Zhang 《大气与海洋》2018,56(4):230-239

ABSTRACT

Because of the high elevation and complex topography of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the role of lakes in the climate system over the Tibetan Plateau is not well understood. For this study, we investigated the impact of lake processes on local and regional climate using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which includes a one-dimensional physically based lake model. The first simulation with the WRF model was performed for the TP over the 2000–2010 period, and the second was carried out during the same period but with the lakes filled with nearby land-use types. Results with the lake simulation show that the model captures the spatial and temporal patterns of annual mean precipitation and temperature well over the TP. Through comparison of the two simulations, we found that the TP lakes mainly cool the near-surface air, inducing a decreasing sensible heat flux for the entire year. Meanwhile, stronger evaporation produced by the lakes is found in the fall. During the summer, the cooling effect of the lakes decreases precipitation in the surrounding area and generates anomalous circulation patterns. In conclusion, the TP lakes cool the near-surface atmosphere most of the time, weaken the sensible heat flux, and strengthen the latent heat flux, resulting in changes in mesoscale precipitation and regional-scale circulation.  相似文献   

Upper ocean high resolution regional modeling of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal     

Suneet Dwivedi  Alok Kumar Mishr  Atul Srivastava 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(5):32-50

In this paper, effort is made to demonstrate the quality of high-resolution regional ocean circulation model in realistically simulating the circulation and variability properties of the northern Indian Ocean(10°S–25°N,45°–100°E) covering the Arabian Sea(AS) and Bay of Bengal(BoB). The model run using the open boundary conditions is carried out at 10 km horizontal resolution and highest vertical resolution of 2 m in the upper ocean.The surface and sub-surface structure of hydrographic variables(temperature and salinity) and currents is compared against the observations during 1998–2014(17 years). In particular, the seasonal variability of the sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and surface currents over the model domain is studied. The highresolution model's ability in correct estimation of the spatio-temporal mixed layer depth(MLD) variability of the AS and BoB is also shown. The lowest MLD values are observed during spring(March-April-May) and highest during winter(December-January-February) seasons. The maximum MLD in the AS(BoB) during December to February reaches 150 m (67 m). On the other hand, the minimum MLD in these regions during March-April-May becomes as low as 11–12 m. The influence of wind stress, net heat flux and freshwater flux on the seasonal variability of the MLD is discussed. The physical processes controlling the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature are investigated by carrying out mixed layer heat budget analysis. It is found that air-sea fluxes play a dominant role in the seasonal evolution of sea surface temperature of the northern Indian Ocean and the contribution of horizontal advection, vertical entrainment and diffusion processes is small. The upper ocean zonal and meridional volume transport across different sections in the AS and BoB is also computed. The seasonal variability of the transports is studied in the context of monsoonal currents.  相似文献   

基于国家海洋治理和全球气候变化的我国海洋灾害防治          下载免费PDF全文

齐庆华 《海洋开发与管理》2019,36(2):17-23

为建立和完善现代化的海洋灾害防治体系,提高我国海洋治理和应对全球气候变化的能力,文章以全球治理和国家治理为背景,在明确致灾因子、承灾体、灾害以及灾害风险和管理等基本概念及其内涵的基础上,分析全球气候变化背景下我国海洋灾害及其风险的特征以及海洋灾害防治的关键性和基础性科学问题,并提出我国构建海洋灾害防治体系的建议。研究结果表明:在全球气候变化的影响下,我国沿海地区的海洋灾害风险复杂多变且有所提升;提出以群-环-域为主体的体系架构,研究全球气候变化与区域海洋的响应和反馈、全球气候变化背景下海洋灾害与风险的特征和规律以及综合海洋灾害风险评估和海洋灾害防治等问题;在我国构建海洋灾害防治体系的过程中,应加强科学研究以及技术和信息支撑、促进区域和全球联动联防以及提高全社会对海洋灾害的认知和防范水平。  相似文献   

考虑冲刷影响的筒型基础竖向极限承载力研究     

陆罗观  刘润  练继建  陈广思 《海洋工程》2019,37(3):69-77

大直径宽浅式筒型基础,阻水宽度大,在位工作期间受波浪海流作用,其周围土体易被冲刷。为研究单侧地基土体受冲刷后筒型基础的竖向极限承载力变化,通过引进冲刷率的概念,采用有限元方法研究了不同冲刷率下筒型基础的竖向极限承载力;并基于Meyerhof理论建立了计算不同冲刷率下筒型基础竖向极限承载力的极限平衡方法。研究结果表明,随着冲刷率增大,筒型基础的极限承载力出现不同程度的下降,当冲刷率为0.8时,即筒型基础单侧土体冲刷深度达6.4 m时,筒型基础的竖向极限承载力折减率为3.28%。建立的极限平衡算法可准确计算冲刷条件下筒型基础的竖向极限承载力。  相似文献   

中国近海藻毒素及有毒微藻产毒原因种调查研究进展   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

梁玉波  李冬梅  姚敬元  金薇  宫长宝  刘仁沿 《海洋与湖沼》2019,50(3):511-524

麻痹性贝类毒素在我国近海污染问题已十分突出,基本呈现逐年加剧的趋势。20世纪90年代,南海麻痹性贝类毒素污染较重; 21世纪初,北黄海麻痹性贝类毒素污染较重;近几年,渤海和福建近海麻痹性贝类毒素污染较重;可产生麻痹性贝类毒素的微藻有亚历山大藻和裸甲藻等。采用小鼠生物法检测我国近海腹泻性贝类毒素超标率32%左右,采用液相色谱/质谱法检测,仅有3起超标的研究报道;现行小鼠生物法检测腹泻性贝类毒素假阳性问题十分突出,应尽快废除;腹泻性贝类毒素均是脂溶性的,脂溶性海洋生物毒素在我国近海常年可检出,偶有虾夷扇贝毒素和鳍藻毒素超标现象。可产生脂溶性毒素微藻有鳍藻和原甲藻及网状原角藻等。失忆性贝类毒素在我国近海常有检出,但无超标现象;产毒微藻有拟菱形藻等。西加鱼毒素在我国南海污染较重,但毒素标准物质的匮乏,限制了西加鱼毒素的调查研究;至今尚未确定产生西加鱼毒素的微藻。酶联免疫吸附法和液相色谱串联质谱法相结合已成为藻毒素快速准确检测成熟的技术,逐渐代替小鼠生物法和液相色谱法。  相似文献